THE coalition could lose a swag of marginal seats at next year's federal election as new electoral laws automatically enrol up to 1.5 million voters.
An analysis of Newspoll surveys indicate the coalition's primary vote would slip by 1.5 percentage points if those eligible to vote but not enrolled - mainly young people - were enrolled, The Australian reports.
As many as a dozen Liberal and Nationals seats could come into play if Labor and the Australian Greens could mobilise the "youth vote", the paper said.
The coalition holds 10 seats with a margin of less than two per cent. The most vulnerable are the Liberal-held Boothby in South Australia (0.3 per cent); Hasluck in Western Australia (0.6 per cent); and Aston in Victoria (0.7 per cent).
Brisbane (1.1 per cent) and Solomon in Darwin (1.8 per cent) have a high proportion of students and young workers, while Herbert in far north Queensland (2.1 per cent) and Swan in Perth (2.5 per cent) have very high proportion of young people of voting age.
The Greens would be the main beneficiary of direct enrolment, in effect from July, analysis by Professor Ian McAllister of the Australian National University found. Their first preference vote would rise by 0.6 of a point, while Labor's vote would increase very marginally.
"These are small changes, but they would be magnified in inner city areas where young people are more concentrated," Prof McAllister, co-director of the Australian Election Study, told The Australian.
"They could easily affect the outcome in a tightly held seat. The result in around half a dozen seats could be determined by these enrolment changes."
The past four federal elections may have been decided by voters aged 18-34, about 30 per cent of the electorate, a Whitlam Institute study last year of Newspoll data over 14 years found. And there are 1.5 million "missing" voters - 9.5 per cent of eligible voters, The Australian Electoral Commission estimates.
Prof McAllister analysed four special Newspoll surveys covering 4857 adults. The coalition's primary vote slipped from 40.3 per cent to 38.8 per cent when adding in direct enrolments; Labor's vote edged up a single notch to 34.9 per cent; and the Greens rose from 10.9 per cent to 11.5 per cent.
Anda sedang membaca artikel tentang
New voting law jeopardises coalition seats
Dengan url
http://mawarhitamanis.blogspot.com/2012/12/new-voting-law-jeopardises-coalition.html
Anda boleh menyebar luaskannya atau mengcopy paste-nya
New voting law jeopardises coalition seats
namun jangan lupa untuk meletakkan link
New voting law jeopardises coalition seats
sebagai sumbernya
0 komentar:
Posting Komentar